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Hurricane ALEX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19                  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010               
0900 UTC WED JUN 30 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.                                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X      14      49      NA      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       3      45      35      NA      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM   4      30      35      16      NA      NA      NA
HURRICANE       96      67       6       1      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       70      43       4       1      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2       22      17       1       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        4       6       1       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       1       X       X      NA      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   80KT    85KT    35KT    20KT    NA      NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 930W 34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  7   6(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  5   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  6   9(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34 14  14(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 36  34(70)   2(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  2  14(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34 87   6(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 37  16(53)   1(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)   X(54)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PESCO MX    34 42  39(81)   3(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
LA PESCO MX    50  3  35(38)   7(45)   1(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   9( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
TAMPICO MX     34 12  16(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
TAMPICO MX     50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  6   6(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
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