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Tropical Storm ALEX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010               
0900 UTC MON JUN 28 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       7      25      57
TROP DEPRESSION  3       2       2       1      10      26      21
TROPICAL STORM  85      51      27      18      27      29      11
HURRICANE       12      47      71      81      56      21      11
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       11      40      50      41      24       9       3
HUR CAT 2        1       5      15      22      17       6       3
HUR CAT 3        X       1       4      14      12       4       4
HUR CAT 4        X       1       1       3       3       2       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       1       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    65KT    75KT    85KT    95KT    40KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  10(15)   5(20)   1(21)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)   2(18)
GALVESTON TX   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
GALVESTON TX   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   1(13)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   2(14)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   8(21)   2(23)
FREEPORT TX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
FREEPORT TX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  18(24)   7(31)   2(33)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   1(10)
GFMX 280N 950W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)  10(28)   3(31)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
PORT O CONNOR  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)  13(35)   3(38)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)  28(41)  10(51)   3(54)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   8(21)   2(23)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)  36(51)  10(61)   3(64)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  17(19)  10(29)   3(32)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   2(14)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  25(38)  33(71)   7(78)   1(79)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  29(39)   7(46)   2(48)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   5(27)   1(28)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)  30(46)  11(57)   2(59)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   7(22)   1(23)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)  19(34)   6(40)   2(42)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
TAMPICO MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)  10(25)   4(29)   1(30)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   4(14)   2(16)   X(16)
 
FRONTERA MX    34 11   4(15)   5(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   1(23)
 
MERIDA MX      34 18   8(26)   4(30)   2(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BELIZE         34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:03 UTC