Hurricane ALEX

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HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
100 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
 
...LARGE HURRICANE ALEX...A LITTLE STRONGER...AIMS AT THE NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...  

 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...24.4N 96.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BROWNSVILLE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST.
ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...NEAR 12
MPH...18 KM/HR DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST LATER TODAY. THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...135
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.
 
ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE
BEEN VERY USEFUL IN TRACKING ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
AUTOMATIC STATION IN MATAMOROS MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR. 
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COASTS.
 
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM WINDS
ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST. 
 
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND.  NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
 
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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