Tropical Depression ONE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010
 
WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN AN 0010 UTC
SSMIS PASS APPEARED DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS TILT IS CONSISTENT WITH AROUND 10 KT OF NORTHERLY
OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL
AND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE SAB DVORAK ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION
LATER TONIGHT. 
 
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE
DEPRESSION REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS THEN
EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
STRONGER GFDL AND LGEM MODELS AND THE THE WEAKER HWRF AND SHIPS
MODELS BY DAY 5.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST LONG-TERM
ESTIMATE IS 295/08.  FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN
36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AFTER IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  BY DAYS 3 TO 5 MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL NOT GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE TO INTERACT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST BUT THE REMAINS A ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST SPEED IS VERY SLOW BY DAY 5
GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 16.7N  84.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.4N  85.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.4N  87.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 19.5N  89.1W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.8N  90.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 22.5N  92.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N  93.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     01/0000Z 24.5N  94.5W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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