Hurricane RICK
ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
0300 UTC MON OCT 19 2009
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125
KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 2 37 NA
TROP DEPRESSION X X X 1 6 31 NA
TROPICAL STORM X X 5 20 45 18 NA
HURRICANE 99 99 95 80 48 14 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 6 28 44 31 7 NA
HUR CAT 2 2 24 36 23 10 4 NA
HUR CAT 3 45 56 26 11 6 3 NA
HUR CAT 4 53 13 5 2 1 1 NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 115KT 105KT 95KT 85KT 70KT 30KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 30(45) 32(77) 2(79) X(79)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 27(40) 1(41) X(41)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 1(20) X(20)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 26(39) 36(75) 2(77) X(77)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 28(38) 1(39) X(39)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 17(23) 34(57) 4(61) X(61)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) X(20)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 5(21) X(21)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) X(25)
HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 8(44) X(44)
LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12)
LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 43(52) 8(60) X(60)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 6(24) X(24)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 32(37) 7(44) X(44)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 90 6(96) 1(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 51 26(77) 3(80) X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 11 30(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
ISLA CLARION 34 5 10(15) 5(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
ISLA CLARION 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 16(23) 3(26) X(26)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: