ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 500 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009 ...RICK STILL WEAKENING...NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES ...495 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. RICK IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. ...SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT INFORMATION... LOCATION...18.8N 111.8W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/BROWN NNNN
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