ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009 ...RICK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES ...525 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. RICK IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION... LOCATION...18.5N 111.7W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS NNNN
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