ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RICK THIS AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB. IN ADDITION...THE PEAK SURFACE WIND ESTIMATED FROM THE SFMR WAS 55 KT WEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD AT 55 KT. RICK IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL NO LONGER SHOWS MUCH DECREASE IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE IT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THIS INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL...MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO. AIRCRAFT FIXES AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMED PREVIOUS ESTIMATES OF THE INITIAL MOTION OF 045/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEER RICK NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH LANDFALL. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 20.4N 110.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 23.2N 106.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 25.2N 103.9W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC