ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009 DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICK HAS WEAKENED QUICKLY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 76 KT WAS FOUND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WHILE THE PEAK SFMR WIND WAS 68 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT 85 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE SOME OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 50 MI EAST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 50-KT AND 34-KT WIND FIELDS HAVE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AS THE PREVIOUSLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE INNER CORE BEGINS TO RELAX. THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW 15 TO 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER RICK. THE SHIPS FORECASTS THIS TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING EVEN FURTHER. THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS TOWARD THE SHIPS AND LGEM BEYOND THAT TIME. THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW CONTINUED WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY OR EVEN SHOW STRENGTHENING ON DAY 2...WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT THAT RICK WILL BE MOVING INTO. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... 330/06. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RICK ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT RECURVES AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 18.5N 111.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 19.2N 111.8W 75 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 20.4N 111.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 21.9N 109.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 23.5N 108.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 25.5N 106.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC