Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane RICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT RICK IS MAINTAINING AN EXTREMELY
WELL-DEFINED 15 N MI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS.  THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS QUITE EXTENSIVE AS WELL. 
BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE CLOSE TO 7.5
WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 155 KT...I.E.
CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL MAY BE TRYING TO FORM WHICH COULD PRESAGE AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAKENING.  IN ANY EVENT...
RICK HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE
MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BECOME ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE TRACK OF RICK...GLOBAL
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-30 KT IN ITS 3-5 DAY
PREDICTION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE SHIPS
AND LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THOSE MODELS
AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER...TO ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE WILL NOT BE AFFECTED SO MUCH BY THE
SHEAR. 

THE INITIAL MOTION...285/12...CONTINUES ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. 
THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO. 
RICK IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA IN A DAY OR
TWO...SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RICK WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL REMAINS THE OUTLIER
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IN THAT IT SHOWS LITTLE MOTION BEYOND 48
HOURS AND IS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS A
TRACK OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER
PART OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BEAR
IN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN LANDFALL LOCATION AND TIMING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE 4- AND 5-DAY TIME FRAME.  

ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FIVE
STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA...IT COULD STILL BE
QUITE POWERFUL BY THAT TIME.  INTERESTS IN THAT AREA AND ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 15.3N 107.2W   155 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.9N 109.0W   150 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W   140 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 111.7W   130 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 19.1N 112.0W   115 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 21.5N 111.0W    95 KT
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 24.5N 109.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     23/0600Z 28.0N 104.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC