ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009 ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO APPARENT EYE ON IR IMAGES YET...RECENT SSMI AND SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A QUITE DISTINCT EYE FEATURE. THIS NORMALLY IS AN INDICATION THAT THE EYE WILL PROBABLY SHOW UP CLEARLY ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE WITH A VERY STRONG AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND NUMEROUS RAINBANDS. THE OUTFLOW IS OUTSTANDING IMPLYING THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON 5.0 AND 4.5 T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. MY PREDECESSORS HAVE DESCRIBED AT LENGTH THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OF RICK...AND THAT REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MORE FAVORABLE THAN AVERAGE FOR A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING... AND RICK IS FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 125 KNOTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED ONCE THE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY ERODED BY THE EXPANSION OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES. THE RESULTING STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO A RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS RICK ON A WESTWARD TRACK...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE HURRICANE EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AND BRINGS RICK DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS. INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STRENGTHENING HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 13.3N 101.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 13.7N 102.4W 100 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W 110 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 107.2W 115 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 109.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:31 UTC