Tropical Storm PATRICIA
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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
1500 UTC TUE OCT 13 2009
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENAVISTA TO AGUA BLANCA...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF BUENAVISTA TO LA PAZ
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.0W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 25NE 75SE 100SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 109.0W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 109.1W
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.9N 109.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT... 25NE 75SE 90SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.3N 110.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.4N 111.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.5N 113.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 109.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
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FORECASTER BEVEN
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