Tropical Storm PATRICIA
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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
0900 UTC TUE OCT 13 2009
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BUENAVISTA TO AGUA BLANCA...INCLUDING
CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF BUENAVISTA TO LA PAZ
AND ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF AGUA BLANCA TO SANTA FE. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.3W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 25NE 75SE 100SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 109.3W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.3W
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT... 25NE 75SE 90SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.1N 110.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 75SE 75SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.4N 111.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 109.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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