Tropical Storm PATRICIA
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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
2100 UTC MON OCT 12 2009
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.1W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 90SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 110.1W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 110.0W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.7N 110.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.8N 110.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 110SE 50SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 50SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 75SE 50SW 20NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 120.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 110.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
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FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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