Tropical Storm PATRICIA
ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009
1500 UTC MON OCT 12 2009
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 45SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 90SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 109.6W
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.3N 109.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 109.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.9N 110.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 109.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN