ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009 200 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2009 PATRICIA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 1800 UTC...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AT 0504 UTC. REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TRANSIENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...300/05. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANT LOW. THIS WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PATRICIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 22.8N 109.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 14/1800Z 23.0N 110.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 15/0600Z 23.1N 112.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 15/1800Z 23.1N 113.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 16/0600Z 23.1N 115.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:30 UTC