Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE NINETEENTH OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
SEASON. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND CONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS MASS OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH AND ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR
IS FORECAST ALONG THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
FAVORS MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THIS LACK OF DEVELOPMENT
IS A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...WHICH BARELY MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL
STORM. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
4 DAYS OR EARLIER AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
LATEST FIXES YIELD A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/05.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
CONTINUED SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER A
WEAKER...AND MORE SHALLOW...SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 17.3N 108.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 20.3N 109.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 23.0N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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