ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009 THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OLAF IS DISPLACED ABOUT 180 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF SONORA AND SINALOA. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...BUT LA PAZ RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28 KT AND A 1406 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE STILL NEAR 30 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT. NOW THAT ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND OLAF SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY 36 HOURS ONCE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE DECOUPLED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AT 095/13...LIKELY DUE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN BAJA COAST. THIS FLOW SHOULD LESSEN AS THE CENTER GETS CLOSER TO LAND...AND THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NEITHER THE DYNAMICAL NOR THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS HAVE CORRECTLY FORECAST THE RECENT EASTWARD MOTION...AND THE RESULTING OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WELL SOUTH OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSER TO CLIPER. RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 23.8N 113.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 23.9N 111.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 04/1800Z 24.5N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:29 UTC