ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 02 2009 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA. MOST OF THE THUDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO A FEW CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE OUTFLOW IS NOT UNIDIRECTIONAL YET. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE FACT THAT OLAF IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED IN INCREASING SHEAR...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION OR EVEN AS A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY. OLAF HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY MOVE A WEAKENING OLAF NORTHEASTWARD. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 24.5N 116.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 115.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 26.5N 113.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:29 UTC