Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm NORA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009
800 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2009
 
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF NORA HAS CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.  THE PROMINENT BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN SIZE.  UPPER-LEVEL
CIRRUS MOTIONS AROUND NORA SUGGEST THAT SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM...AND THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS MAY BE A BIT SEPARATED.  NONETHELESS...DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...
AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS 55 KT.  A BLEND
OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...THE INTENSITY MODELS
INDICATE THAT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOW INCLUDING THE GFDL AND HWRF...
SHOWS NORA BECOMING A HURRICANE.  THE STORM IS LOCATED BENEATH A
NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUT IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THESE WINDS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING TO OCCUR AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.  THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/6 IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN SINCE IT IS NOT
READILY APPARENT HOW MUCH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SEPARATED FROM
THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  NOW THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NO LONGER
INDICATE AS MUCH STRENGTHENING...THEIR TRACKS DO NOT SHOW A
PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND ARE CLOSER TO THE REST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE.  AS A RESULT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN HAS SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS NOW AGREEING
ON A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH...BUT IT IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 17.0N 119.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N 120.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N 121.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.3N 122.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.2N 123.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N 128.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC