ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009 MARTY HAS BEEN VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 0500 UTC...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. MARTY STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. AS MARTY MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 22.9N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 20/0600Z 23.1N 120.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 20/1800Z 23.2N 122.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 21/0600Z 23.1N 124.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 21/1800Z 22.8N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC