Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009
800 AM PDT THU SEP 17 2009
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS AS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY AND THE OVERALL
SHAPE HAS BECOME ELONGATED.  AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0913
UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT...WHICH
COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  MARTY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THESE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS AT THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS MARTY BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
MARTY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AS
MARTY WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  ALL OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE HWRF...AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION.  THE HWRF
KEEPS MARTY A DEEP SYSTEM AND MOVES IT INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THIS MODEL IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 19.7N 113.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 20.3N 113.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 21.1N 113.9W    35 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N 114.8W    30 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 22.8N 115.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 23.8N 117.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC