Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MARTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009
200 PM PDT WED SEP 16 2009
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARTY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE
SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS THAT OF A VERY ASYMMETRIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.0 SUPPORT
INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT.  A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM
UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. 
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY...THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR MARTY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY...
THEREAFTER INCREASING SHEAR AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE A MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.

MARTY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD SOON 
AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE NEW
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK...AS
NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN MARTY WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 18.9N 112.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.2N 112.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 20.4N 113.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 21.2N 113.9W    35 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 22.6N 115.3W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC