ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009 430 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK T-NUMBER HAVE ALSO INCREASED INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. IN FACT...THE SYSTEM COULD BE A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR EARLIER. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MEXICO AND WILL PROVIDE SOME NORTH-NORTHWEST STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1130Z 18.7N 112.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 18.9N 112.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 19.5N 113.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 113.2W 30 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W 25 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC