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Tropical Storm LINDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
800 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2009
 
LINDA APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER SUB 26C
WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS AROUND 20 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A THINNING OF THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST AND WARMING
CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 2010 UTC TRMM PASS AND A 2140
UTC AMSR-E PASS SHOW CONTINUED VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE
CYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS 55 KT...A LITTLE LOWER THAN A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT T-NUMBERS DUE TO
THE DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. LINDA WILL BE
MOVING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 24C AFTER 24 HOURS...WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT
IN STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND
DISSIPATION IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. 

THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE BEHIND PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07...AS LINDA IS BEING STEERED
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 23N142W AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 22N117W. AS LINDA BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT
WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. IF LINDA IS STILL AROUND NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD...IT COULD BE PULLED NORTHWARD BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTERNATIVELY...IT COULD TURN
WESTWARD IF THAT TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
TOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BEFORE SHOWING A VERY SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 19.9N 130.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 20.8N 131.0W    50 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 22.1N 132.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 22.3N 132.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 22.5N 133.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:27 UTC