ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. THE CONVECTION IS NOT SYMMETRIC AND IS LOCATED PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 55 KNOTS. LINDA STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO REACH COOLER WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD START THEREAFTER AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. LINDA BEGAN TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THERE IS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING EAST OF LINDA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE WITH ONE GROUP TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THE OTHER SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE FIRST GROUP WHICH CONSISTS OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 16.5N 128.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 17.3N 129.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 130.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 20.7N 131.4W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 22.5N 132.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 23.5N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1200Z 25.0N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:26 UTC