ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009 THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LINDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN T3.5 OR 55 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LINDA REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT QUITE EXPANSIVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. DESPITE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE PREDICTS SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...BUT IS BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH BRING THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN 24-36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. THESE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...LINDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AS IT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A MORE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS LINDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/2. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LINDA TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREAFTER... THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS TURNING LINDA WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5 KEEPS LINDA ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...AND BAMS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. IT SEEMS THAT NINES MUST BE WILD THIS MORNING...AS THIS HAPPENS TO BE THE 9TH ADVISORY ON LINDA AT 0900 UTC ON 9/9/09. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.8N 128.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 16.5N 128.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 20.2N 131.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 22.2N 132.1W 30 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/0600Z 25.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:26 UTC