ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009 THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A FEW SPOTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. IT SEEMS THAT THE SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED OVER THE SYSTEM HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED AND CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC. BASED ON T-NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS A FEW HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. IF FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SOON AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR FORECAST LINDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. LINDA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE...PERHAPS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 2 KNOTS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LINDA TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BEYOND THREE DAYS...LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO RECURVE WHILE MOVING LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO BE RELIABLE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SEPARATE THE LOW FROM THE MID LEVEL AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND KEEP A WEAK LOW MEANDERING IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. THE WIND RADII WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.5N 128.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.7N 128.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 17.8N 130.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.0N 130.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 24.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 13/1800Z 25.0N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:26 UTC