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Tropical Storm LINDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A FEW SPOTS OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER.  IT SEEMS THAT THE SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED OVER
THE SYSTEM HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED AND CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE
MORE SYMMETRIC. BASED ON T-NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AND DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS A FEW HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO
A SMALL AREA ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. IF FACT...THE
SHIPS MODEL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SOON AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR FORECAST LINDA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE.
 
LINDA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE...PERHAPS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT
2 KNOTS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LINDA TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS. BEYOND THREE DAYS...LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO RECURVE WHILE
MOVING LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK GUIDANCE
WHICH APPEARS TO BE RELIABLE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SEPARATE THE LOW FROM THE MID LEVEL AND
WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND KEEP A WEAK LOW MEANDERING IN THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.
  
THE WIND RADII WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 15.5N 128.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.7N 128.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 17.8N 130.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 130.8W    40 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 24.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     13/1800Z 25.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:26 UTC