ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009 DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH DUE SHEAR. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS...AND THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT GENEROUS. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND STAYS AWAY FROM THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR THAT FORECAST LINDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. LINDA HAS BEEN MEANDERING WESTWARD WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LINDA TO BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SOON AND THEN NORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THREE DAYS LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO RECURVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 15.2N 128.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 15.4N 128.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 21.5N 132.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 13/1200Z 25.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:26 UTC