Tropical Storm LINDA

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE APPEARANCE OF LINDA
TYPIFIES THAT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING WESTERLY SHEAR.  DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER
THIS EVENING...BUT RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A RESURGENCE OF
CONVECTION IN A MORE SYMMETRIC SHAPE AROUND THE CENTER.  OVERALL...
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN
SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE AT 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB AND ARE USED AS A BASIS TO MAINTAIN
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT THIS ADVISORY.
 
AN 0413 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS USEFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER. THAT PASS
ALONG WITH RECENT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF
265/07. LINDA REMAINS IN A WEAK-STEERING ENVIRONMENT...DOMINATED BY
WEAK RIDGING TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 130W. AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...LINDA SHOULD
TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THEREAFTER...
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL/ECMWF INDICATING
EITHER A WEAKER RIDGE/MORE ROBUST TROUGH OR A STRONGER LINDA...AND
THEREFORE TURN LINDA MORE NORTHWARD EARLIER. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/
CANADIAN MODELS DIFFER BY SHOWING A WEAKER TROUGH AND STRONGER
RIDGING...WHICH LEADS TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO LEFT DUE TO PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND THEN
TO THE RIGHT LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH LINDA WAS DEVELOPING AT A MORE RAPID PACE EARLIER...THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING A PERIOD OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT
AS A RESULT OF SEVERAL FACTORS.  THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS NEGATIVE INFLUENCES ON FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS ENOUGH TO
PREVENT MUCH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AWAY FROM THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/HWRF
PREDICTIONS AND MORE CLOSELY MATCHING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/0900Z 15.1N 128.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     08/1800Z 15.2N 128.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     09/0600Z 15.9N 129.4W    55 KT
 36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.7N 130.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.8N 130.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     12/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     13/0600Z 24.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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