Tropical Storm LINDA

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
200 PM PDT MON SEP 07 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING...WITH ITS SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAVING IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED BAND HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...RECENTLY WRAPPING 
AROUND WHAT COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARM SPOT COINCIDENT WITH
THE CENTER. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM
TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION
AND HIGHER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM LINDA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO
50 KT...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF
A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE A RATHER SLOW 280/07.
LINDA IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N112W. THE CYCLONE COULD SLOW EVEN
FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTWARD
EXTENSION OF A TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THEREAFTER...AS
THE WEAKNESS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED...LINDA SHOULD BE STEERED MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
RELIES MORE HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM...DISCOUNTING 
THE UKMET AND GFDL...WHICH ALMOST IMMEDIATELY FORECAST A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
 
THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE AROUND 10 KT OF WESTERLY
SHEAR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS LINDA MOVES OVER
MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SSTS SHOULD
CAUSE LINDA TO BEGIN WEAKENING...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE
A REMNANT LOW BY 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
FIRST 24-36 HOURS DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS...AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS
AND THE MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 15.5N 127.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.6N 127.9W    60 KT
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 15.9N 128.9W    65 KT
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.2N 130.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 132.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     12/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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