ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152009 800 AM PDT MON SEP 07 2009 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND...WITH MODERATELY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 1016 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...IN SPITE OF THE GENERAL LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THE UNCHANGED APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KT. RECENT SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A RATHER SLOW INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/07. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 135W. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE IN THE SHORT-TERM...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AN EVEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ONCE THE DEPRESSION RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS AHEAD OF IT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTERS WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...INDICATING A PERIOD OF MODEST STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER... INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 15.4N 126.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 15.6N 127.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 16.0N 128.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 16.3N 129.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 16.8N 130.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 18.8N 131.8W 45 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 21.5N 133.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 23.5N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:26 UTC