ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009 CONVECTION WITH KEVIN HAS BEEN WANING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH ONLY TWO SMALL BANDS REMAINING. IN ADDITION...A TRMM PASS NEAR 0844Z SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED WITH TWO POSSIBLE CENTERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. A SLOW SPIN-DOWN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND MARGINAL SSTS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WEAKENING OF KEVIN...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3. THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE FOR 24-36 HOURS UNTIL WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD FORCE A SLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF KEVIN UNTIL FINAL DISSIPATION. THE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING MORE RIDGING...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.0N 121.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.4N 121.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.6N 121.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 03/0000Z 18.7N 121.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 03/1200Z 18.6N 122.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:25 UTC