Tropical Depression KEVIN
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
CONVECTION WITH KEVIN HAS BEEN WANING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH
ONLY TWO SMALL BANDS REMAINING. IN ADDITION...A TRMM PASS NEAR
0844Z SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED WITH TWO POSSIBLE
CENTERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BUT THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS. A SLOW SPIN-DOWN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY DUE
TO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND
MARGINAL SSTS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
WEAKENING OF KEVIN...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3. THE DEPRESSION IS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE
FOR 24-36 HOURS UNTIL WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD FORCE A SLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST
MOTION OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF KEVIN UNTIL FINAL DISSIPATION. THE
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING MORE RIDGING...AND THE NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.0N 121.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.4N 121.7W 25 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.6N 121.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/0000Z 18.7N 121.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1200Z 18.6N 122.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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