ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009 200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009 KEVIN IS FADING FAST. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. SUBSEQUENTLY...IF THIS CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE TERMINATED THIS EVENING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/05...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT WITHIN A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS...OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 17.2N 121.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 17.7N 121.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 18.1N 120.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 02/0600Z 18.3N 120.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 120.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/1800Z 18.6N 120.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:25 UTC