Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm KEVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
 
A 0216 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THAT KEVIN HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF
35 KT CONFINED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT.  THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE AND
SCATTEROMETER PASSES.  THE SIZE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BEEN
SHRINKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION
THAT KEVIN MAY NOT CONTINUE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER. 
EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AND VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO...ALL THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS KEVIN BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.

THE MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 015/5.  KEVIN IS BEING
STEERED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND A SHEAR AXIS TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THERE IS GREATER
SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE AFTER THAT POINT WITH SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST TURN...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE LEAD OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS WHICH SHOW KEVIN
DISSIPATING AS EARLY AS 48-72 HOURS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 16.3N 121.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 16.8N 121.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 17.4N 121.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 17.8N 120.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 18.1N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 18.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:25 UTC