Tropical Storm KEVIN

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TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
 
A 0216 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THAT KEVIN HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF
35 KT CONFINED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT.  THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE AND
SCATTEROMETER PASSES.  THE SIZE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BEEN
SHRINKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION
THAT KEVIN MAY NOT CONTINUE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER. 
EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AND VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO...ALL THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS KEVIN BECOMING A REMNANT
LOW BY 48 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.

THE MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 015/5.  KEVIN IS BEING
STEERED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND A SHEAR AXIS TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THERE IS GREATER
SPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE AFTER THAT POINT WITH SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST TURN...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE LEAD OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS WHICH SHOW KEVIN
DISSIPATING AS EARLY AS 48-72 HOURS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 16.3N 121.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 16.8N 121.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 17.4N 121.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 17.8N 120.7W    30 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 18.1N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 18.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
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