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Tropical Storm KEVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009
 
ALTHOUGH KEVIN HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW LOCATED JUST UNDERNEATH THE
HEAD OF A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND THIS PATTERN IS YIELDING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB.  IN ADDITION...A 0243 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT.
 
WITH THE HELP OF A 0045 UTC TRMM AND A 0155 UTC WINDSAT PASS...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/6.  KEVIN LIES ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN IT AND HURRICANE
JIMENA...AND THIS IS CAUSING THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION. 
HOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND KEVIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THAT TIME.  ONE
COMPLICATING FACTOR TO THIS FORECAST IS HOW KEVIN WILL INTERACT
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF JIMENA.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PLAYING A GAME OF PINBALL...PULLING KEVIN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
JIMENA AND THEN PUSHING IT BACK TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARD A
NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST.  THE
HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE ONLY TWO WHICH STILL SHOW KEVIN
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION BY
DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN STRENGTHENING VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  KEVIN WILL REMAIN OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM
WATER...BUT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ALSO...BOTH
THE GFDL AND HWRF INDICATE NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND STEADY
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES
THAT KEVIN WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE JIMENA AND SHOWS
SLOW WEAKENING STARTING AT 36 HOURS...BUT IT IS STILL ABOVE THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LOSE A COHERENT
VORTEX BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KEVIN MAY NOT
EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THEN.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 14.1N 121.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 14.7N 121.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 15.5N 121.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 16.2N 120.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 16.9N 120.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 18.3N 119.1W    40 KT
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     04/0600Z 19.2N 118.2W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:25 UTC