ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142009 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE A CONSENSUS 2.0...THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED AT THIS TIME AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/08...AS THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH TWO SCENARIOS DEPICTED. THE FIRST IS SHOWN BY THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET AND GFDL...WHICH SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...SEEMINGLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER HURRICANE JIMENA. THE GFS...NOGAPS AND GFDL SHOW THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BY 36 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET DOES NOT SHOW IT UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE SECOND SCENARIO IS SHOWN BY THE HWRF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE BAMS...WHICH SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SECOND SCENARIO... ASSUMING THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION WITH JIMENA. THE FORECAST SPEED IS KEPT SLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS AND A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 3...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE THE DEPRESSION BEING OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS LIMITED STRENGTHENING. THIS MAY BE BECAUSE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS...AND THEN SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AS IT APPROACHES 20N ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 13.3N 121.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 14.0N 122.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 14.9N 122.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.9N 122.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 19.5N 125.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:25 UTC