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Hurricane JIMENA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
 
EARLIER DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT JIMENA WAS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE...WITH THE INNER EYE DISSIPATING AND THE NEW EYE ABOUT
25-30 N MI ACROSS.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST AN INTENSITY NEAR
115 KT AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
HAVE WARMED AND THE EYE HAS NOT CLEARED OUT.  BASED ON THIS...IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10.  JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A
GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST BECOMES
LESS CONFIDENT FROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE GFDL AND GFDN STILL CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE
REST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO HIGHER PRESSURES DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS THROUGH THROUGH 72 HR...AND THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE
CENTER OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HR...AND CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 36 HR.
 
IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION
AT THE END OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AS JIMENA IS STARTING
TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  A FASTER WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL...AND AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 72
HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD
WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.
 
INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 21.9N 111.2W   110 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N 112.0W   105 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 25.2N 112.7W    95 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N 113.1W    85 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.6N 113.4W    55 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:24 UTC