ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009 THE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA BECAME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 0500 UTC...HOWEVER SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS WARMED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND A RATHER SYMMETRIC CDO. THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS REMAIN 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM SAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ALSO CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND T6.5. BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND UNCHANGED SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 135 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JIMENA AROUND 1500 UTC THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER... LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT JIMENA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN A FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/10. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE WHILE THE GFDL...HWRF AND ECMWF ARE ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE. THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND THE NEW TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA AT AN OBLIQUE ANGLE...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 20.2N 110.1W 135 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 21.6N 110.8W 130 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 111.6W 120 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 25.2N 112.3W 100 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 26.7N 112.7W 75 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 04/0600Z 28.4N 113.1W 50 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 05/0600Z 30.0N 113.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 06/0600Z 31.5N 112.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:24 UTC