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Tropical Storm IGNACIO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009
200 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF A
WEAKENING BAND OF CONVECTION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY
AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED SOME RELIABLE
40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS
THAT WAS JUST RECEIVED SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT BUT DID NOT SAMPLE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. 
A BLEND OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TURN WEST IN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LIES
A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE-WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
AND ASCAT DATA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 22.1N 124.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 23.3N 126.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 25.0N 128.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 26.4N 129.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 27.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:23 UTC