ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009 800 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009 THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS OF IGNACIO HAVE SEPARATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY WERE CRUCIAL IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EARLY THIS MORNING. MORE RECENTLY...THE CENTER IS BECOMING APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS ABOUT 120 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON DATA T-NUMBERS THAT HAVE DECREASED TO 2.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES. IGNACIO IS ALREADY OVER SUB 26C SSTS AND IS HEADED FOR EVEN COOLER WATER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 21.6N 124.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 24.5N 127.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.1N 129.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.0N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1200Z 27.5N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:23 UTC