ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2009 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT AND RECENTLY THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A BIT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT. A RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR GUILLERMO BY TONIGHT DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ITS CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER COOL WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. GUILLERMO SHOULD TRANSITION TO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/13. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF GUILLERMO STEERING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR HAWAII WILL LIKELY CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES IN MODEL GUIDANCE NOTED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 20.1N 138.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 20.6N 140.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 21.6N 143.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 22.7N 146.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 24.0N 149.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 27.0N 155.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/1200Z 31.0N 162.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC