Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane GUILLERMO


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2009
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH
GUILLERMO IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE EYE REMAINS
DISTINCT AND RECENTLY THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A BIT. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT.  A RAPID WEAKENING IS
LIKELY FOR GUILLERMO BY TONIGHT DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ITS CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER COOL WATERS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  GUILLERMO SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/13.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
GUILLERMO STEERING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR
HAWAII WILL LIKELY CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE NOTED.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 20.1N 138.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 140.7W    70 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 21.6N 143.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 22.7N 146.4W    45 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 24.0N 149.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 27.0N 155.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 31.0N 162.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC