ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009 THE INNER CORE OF GUILLERMO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS ALSO SUGGEST THE EYE NO LONGER CLOUD-FILLED. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN FROM 6 HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE CYCLONE AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE FOR A BIT LONGER. BEYOND THE 12 HOUR PERIOD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN...WITH A FASTER SPIN DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE ICON BLEND...GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND HWRF...FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...TO SHOW A MORE REALISTIC WEAKENING...A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM IS RELIED ON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 285/13. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HURRICANE GUILLERMO SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE ADVISORY IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 18.9N 133.2W 110 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 135.2W 90 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 20.2N 137.8W 80 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 140.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 21.9N 142.8W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 24.0N 148.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 26.0N 153.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 28.5N 159.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC