Tropical Depression TEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
200 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009
 
THE DEPRESSION IS EXHIBITING GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE...ALBEIT AT A
LARGE RADIUS FROM THE CENTER...AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0
FROM SAB.  GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE...I AM
INCLINED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT...ALTHOUGH IT
SHOULD NOT BE LONG BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM.  SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK DROP BELOW 26C BY 72
HOURS...HOWEVER.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE SYSTEM AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON
CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/15. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE
STEERING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVING
WESTWARD WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 15.8N 117.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.5N 119.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N 122.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 17.5N 125.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.8N 128.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N 139.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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