ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 900 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009 A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 13Z INDICATES THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED. THE QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/14...BUT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF GOOD HISTORY ON THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT EASTERLY. THIS WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND HWRF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH DECAY AS SHIPS LATE IN THE PERIOD BECAUSE THAT MODEL WAS BASED ON THE BAMM TRACK...WHICH LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1600Z 15.3N 116.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 118.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 16.6N 120.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 17.4N 126.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W 35 KT $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC