ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092009 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009 SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT WERE INTERMITTENT DURING THE DAY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. IT APPEARS THAT DRY AIR AND NOT SHEAR IS WHAT HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL BRING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTHEN IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS STRENGTHENING THE DEPRESSION TO AROUND 50 KT IN 4-5 DAYS. DESPITE THE RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PREDICT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 265/11. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SHOWN BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE DEPRESSION WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 14.9N 130.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 131.6W 25 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.7N 133.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.4N 135.2W 30 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 14.1N 137.1W 35 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 13.6N 140.7W 35 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 13.5N 144.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 147.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:21 UTC