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Hurricane FELICIA (Text)

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HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 2009
 
FELICIA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS
WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. ALTHOUGH THE EYE
HAS FILLED SOMEWHAT...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL HAVE
ACTUALLY COOLED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
WILL BE KEPT AT 80 KT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND WHEN THEY ENTER THE EYE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN CONTINUES...AND THE HURRICANE IS NOW
MOVING 280/13. A WESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF CYCLONE. IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FELICIA WILL
ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
NEAR HAWAII. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING ABOUT A RELATIVELY FAST
DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE...AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER PART OF THE STORM IS
HELD TO EAST WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES WESTWARD.
WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK AS THE STORM
APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WIND SHEAR NEAR THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR ABOUT
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL SSTS...THESE
FACTORS CALL FOR A RELATIVELY SLOW WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE...WHICH WOULD TEND TO
DECREASE THE RATE OF WEAKENING. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO
SHEAR APART IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF SHEAR
COULD RESULT IN TOTAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. 

DATA FROM A G-IV MISSION THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
HAWAII SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE 1200 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
THIS AFTERNOON.  

FUTURE DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA42 PHFO. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 19.3N 140.8W    80 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 19.6N 142.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 19.7N 145.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 19.8N 148.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 19.7N 150.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 156.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 19.5N 161.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N 166.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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